type
Post
Created date
Oct 23, 2022 02:05 AM
category
Business
tags
Decision Making
status
Published
Language
From
School
summary
slug
password
Author
Priority
Featured
Featured
Cover
Origin
Type
URL
Youtube
Youtube
icon
Non-probabilistic
- Best of Best
we choose the alternative with the best of the best payoffs.
它找出每種行動的最好結果,再從最好結果中找一個更好的做為選擇
![notion image](https://www.notion.so/image/https%3A%2F%2Ffile.notion.so%2Ff%2Ff%2Fe1c5ba0e-562a-49b0-8505-ce5e38fc061b%2Fbfb48e46-d397-4b93-b419-e9add1b15218%2FUntitled.png%3Ftable%3Dblock%26id%3D3fe9f6de-6a84-49d0-b652-5d8aaa1d1f72%26spaceId%3De1c5ba0e-562a-49b0-8505-ce5e38fc061b%26expirationTimestamp%3D1725660000000%26signature%3Ddb96BB2qNMZJ23a-HmP7m1aF3hHsR9lIAQBwBLHTa-w?table=block&id=3fe9f6de-6a84-49d0-b652-5d8aaa1d1f72&cache=v2)
- Best of Worst scenario
we choose the alternative that has best of the worst payoffs. We first choose the worst payoff in each alternative, and then choose the best of them.
它找出每種行動的最壞結果, 再從最壞結果中找一個最好的做為它的選擇
![notion image](https://www.notion.so/image/https%3A%2F%2Ffile.notion.so%2Ff%2Ff%2Fe1c5ba0e-562a-49b0-8505-ce5e38fc061b%2F3d5a6b68-86db-480c-a8a1-d84a46088a43%2FUntitled.png%3Ftable%3Dblock%26id%3D5308dca1-5a5a-4a4b-ba38-4fc20cd6b562%26spaceId%3De1c5ba0e-562a-49b0-8505-ce5e38fc061b%26expirationTimestamp%3D1725660000000%26signature%3DDUUc0a7hmuoOnqhDwseAfQJM97JjJCPDlfi7oXlPRP8?table=block&id=5308dca1-5a5a-4a4b-ba38-4fc20cd6b562&cache=v2)
Opportunity Loss (Minimax Regret) 最小機會損失準則
- Minimize the maximum regret.
小最大後悔準則,它利用機會成本的概念來進行決策。
- 決策首先要電腦會損失 (後悔值) 矩陣; 機會損失的概念是,當一個事件發生時,由於你沒有選擇最優決策 而帶來的收入損失。
- 決策者不知道各種自然狀態中任一種發生的機率,決策目標是確保避免較大的機會損失。
- 運用最小最大後悔值法時,首先要將決策矩陣從利潤矩陣轉變為機會損失矩陣;然後確定每一可選方案的最大機會損失;再次,在這些方案的最大機會損失中,選出一個最小值,與該最小值對應的可選方案便是決策選擇的方案.
- we choose the alternative with the minimum of all the maximum regrets across all alternatives. Regret is the difference between the best payoff and the actual payoff received in a particular state of nature.
![Step1:揾Regret](https://www.notion.so/image/https%3A%2F%2Ffile.notion.so%2Ff%2Ff%2Fe1c5ba0e-562a-49b0-8505-ce5e38fc061b%2Ff428ad6e-dbde-4c6d-a0f0-4325249ef7c3%2FUntitled.png%3Ftable%3Dblock%26id%3D755dfeb7-966f-4ba5-aae6-14e528b9b6a4%26spaceId%3De1c5ba0e-562a-49b0-8505-ce5e38fc061b%26expirationTimestamp%3D1725660000000%26signature%3DATvzkESQ8CxfgoLIKKCLRUlwLlRR9sTXPuE81DHXPPA?table=block&id=755dfeb7-966f-4ba5-aae6-14e528b9b6a4&cache=v2)
![step 2: Minimise regrets](https://www.notion.so/image/https%3A%2F%2Ffile.notion.so%2Ff%2Ff%2Fe1c5ba0e-562a-49b0-8505-ce5e38fc061b%2Fcc99a29c-ec99-471a-86c6-9d1a1a644f0e%2FUntitled.png%3Ftable%3Dblock%26id%3De22dfbce-ee07-4c6c-a4cf-a5923841aaa4%26spaceId%3De1c5ba0e-562a-49b0-8505-ce5e38fc061b%26expirationTimestamp%3D1725660000000%26signature%3DQAEfttf0_B963TH259BVQqsx8gruP8pywEdaJAnyvYw?table=block&id=e22dfbce-ee07-4c6c-a4cf-a5923841aaa4&cache=v2)
Probabilistic
Expected Regret or Opportunity Loss (EOL)
![Step1:揾Regret like (Here)](https://www.notion.so/image/https%3A%2F%2Ffile.notion.so%2Ff%2Ff%2Fe1c5ba0e-562a-49b0-8505-ce5e38fc061b%2F3f537aae-ced5-48a9-b4fc-a3f2dea386fc%2FUntitled.png%3Ftable%3Dblock%26id%3D62726cf7-d8e0-44ea-bf42-bacca7aebd63%26spaceId%3De1c5ba0e-562a-49b0-8505-ce5e38fc061b%26expirationTimestamp%3D1725660000000%26signature%3DeYu-SRQ5AI8Tg2yyjeHn2WK96JLXhx7ygJtcUw75MZQ?table=block&id=62726cf7-d8e0-44ea-bf42-bacca7aebd63&cache=v2)
![step 2: 揾EOL。](https://www.notion.so/image/https%3A%2F%2Ffile.notion.so%2Ff%2Ff%2Fe1c5ba0e-562a-49b0-8505-ce5e38fc061b%2Fa3f442bb-cb5b-4a13-bda9-8744f981677d%2FUntitled.png%3Ftable%3Dblock%26id%3D50791077-3c7b-484d-aab1-8645f2e5d280%26spaceId%3De1c5ba0e-562a-49b0-8505-ce5e38fc061b%26expirationTimestamp%3D1725660000000%26signature%3DZzBgURjWtDN2INxq1-AkFOLi2B2DEAXBNCnzo_6xqxo?table=block&id=50791077-3c7b-484d-aab1-8645f2e5d280&cache=v2)
由於6 為最小值, 所以invest in Bond
Posterior probability
![題目](https://www.notion.so/image/https%3A%2F%2Ffile.notion.so%2Ff%2Ff%2Fe1c5ba0e-562a-49b0-8505-ce5e38fc061b%2F68e5c74c-1680-4ae5-a8fb-76427c112989%2FUntitled.png%3Ftable%3Dblock%26id%3D5fb25b3f-e87c-491d-a075-447655277df0%26spaceId%3De1c5ba0e-562a-49b0-8505-ce5e38fc061b%26expirationTimestamp%3D1725660000000%26signature%3DPa8lvsTvduzTbHj4Zmyux7xergczEreQTXnjufsLAhk?table=block&id=5fb25b3f-e87c-491d-a075-447655277df0&cache=v2)
![notion image](https://www.notion.so/image/https%3A%2F%2Ffile.notion.so%2Ff%2Ff%2Fe1c5ba0e-562a-49b0-8505-ce5e38fc061b%2Fbdce1768-4c44-4170-9053-5040c57abaca%2FUntitled.png%3Ftable%3Dblock%26id%3Dbec523dd-f87c-4bc8-b36b-898f020ded0e%26spaceId%3De1c5ba0e-562a-49b0-8505-ce5e38fc061b%26expirationTimestamp%3D1725660000000%26signature%3DLBUsM3AfqE4p8a6v4It9fTWUxzQ7rmGhp-aI-DZyukA?table=block&id=bec523dd-f87c-4bc8-b36b-898f020ded0e&cache=v2)
![notion image](https://www.notion.so/image/https%3A%2F%2Ffile.notion.so%2Ff%2Ff%2Fe1c5ba0e-562a-49b0-8505-ce5e38fc061b%2Fe0a122d4-0272-44d7-8b94-13eb4fe19591%2FUntitled.png%3Ftable%3Dblock%26id%3D3abd612b-fbfa-4888-ac32-be2dcd2fcb91%26spaceId%3De1c5ba0e-562a-49b0-8505-ce5e38fc061b%26expirationTimestamp%3D1725660000000%26signature%3DWOyQaVM70QPQRH6YHpv8_hszbe_sjH-fcfFfmRIWJ20?table=block&id=3abd612b-fbfa-4888-ac32-be2dcd2fcb91&cache=v2)
![notion image](https://www.notion.so/image/https%3A%2F%2Ffile.notion.so%2Ff%2Ff%2Fe1c5ba0e-562a-49b0-8505-ce5e38fc061b%2F068d4f99-054b-4d37-a2ce-bbeb4bc02663%2FUntitled.png%3Ftable%3Dblock%26id%3D9e83e995-502f-4530-90c7-0bd941c98755%26spaceId%3De1c5ba0e-562a-49b0-8505-ce5e38fc061b%26expirationTimestamp%3D1725660000000%26signature%3DxifvPXVKRTtGtOmiPsa9C3WeSaH8DsAhyywa8oOIXeI?table=block&id=9e83e995-502f-4530-90c7-0bd941c98755&cache=v2)
![notion image](https://www.notion.so/image/https%3A%2F%2Ffile.notion.so%2Ff%2Ff%2Fe1c5ba0e-562a-49b0-8505-ce5e38fc061b%2Fc5932da4-ead2-4c82-bca9-8441b48f2d07%2FUntitled.png%3Ftable%3Dblock%26id%3D78544b68-26fa-4c23-9e62-acea86111c61%26spaceId%3De1c5ba0e-562a-49b0-8505-ce5e38fc061b%26expirationTimestamp%3D1725660000000%26signature%3DADFsXcelisj2TDzACUiCsFtBDhPzkQU4om5w6uxSz-I?table=block&id=78544b68-26fa-4c23-9e62-acea86111c61&cache=v2)
![notion image](https://www.notion.so/image/https%3A%2F%2Ffile.notion.so%2Ff%2Ff%2Fe1c5ba0e-562a-49b0-8505-ce5e38fc061b%2F5f1e79e4-6b64-4fce-aa43-79a8f0367850%2FUntitled.png%3Ftable%3Dblock%26id%3Def194e41-ec67-4bce-8808-e5476eb2b546%26spaceId%3De1c5ba0e-562a-49b0-8505-ce5e38fc061b%26expirationTimestamp%3D1725660000000%26signature%3DhAk6_KdBVJg1E78cXdNrQYHadnKjeIQEjbr1K6iZG-k?table=block&id=ef194e41-ec67-4bce-8808-e5476eb2b546&cache=v2)
![notion image](https://www.notion.so/image/https%3A%2F%2Ffile.notion.so%2Ff%2Ff%2Fe1c5ba0e-562a-49b0-8505-ce5e38fc061b%2F0a7eed37-24b3-4b2f-9c32-06c80506c765%2FUntitled.png%3Ftable%3Dblock%26id%3D9fcfcebd-cf81-4995-98f5-3595a068e5b7%26spaceId%3De1c5ba0e-562a-49b0-8505-ce5e38fc061b%26expirationTimestamp%3D1725660000000%26signature%3DQUza_apEYZt7ThtpHJYo55lKXKVFsZAvEfbFfCjsPQw?table=block&id=9fcfcebd-cf81-4995-98f5-3595a068e5b7&cache=v2)
Expected Value of Sample Information
![1. 揾Expected value](https://www.notion.so/image/https%3A%2F%2Ffile.notion.so%2Ff%2Ff%2Fe1c5ba0e-562a-49b0-8505-ce5e38fc061b%2F0c075521-d923-4d43-a6af-ba57ad04800c%2FUntitled.png%3Ftable%3Dblock%26id%3D463d9c36-38db-427a-957c-129ac65076c2%26spaceId%3De1c5ba0e-562a-49b0-8505-ce5e38fc061b%26expirationTimestamp%3D1725660000000%26signature%3DrAyveEcH1ZPIn7u-JOfSbeYWA41zvs_HRFO4tupW4Is?table=block&id=463d9c36-38db-427a-957c-129ac65076c2&cache=v2)
Scenario: Now suppose there is an economic consultant that can provide additional information about the states of nature (or outcomes). And this consultant has some success history. We now have an additional decision situation. Should we hire this consultant or not?
![Suppose the conditional probs of these are:”](https://www.notion.so/image/https%3A%2F%2Ffile.notion.so%2Ff%2Ff%2Fe1c5ba0e-562a-49b0-8505-ce5e38fc061b%2F3892fbda-b232-4bec-b908-051ad7a5fb00%2FUntitled.png%3Ftable%3Dblock%26id%3Df37d56a1-1371-4639-9751-00a9815942e4%26spaceId%3De1c5ba0e-562a-49b0-8505-ce5e38fc061b%26expirationTimestamp%3D1725660000000%26signature%3D-PQxIp_p_pdVtvH4_GR--xNVGuEZUA9n6VEd-6DNf2I?table=block&id=f37d56a1-1371-4639-9751-00a9815942e4&cache=v2)
![notion image](https://www.notion.so/image/https%3A%2F%2Ffile.notion.so%2Ff%2Ff%2Fe1c5ba0e-562a-49b0-8505-ce5e38fc061b%2F43a23c03-6ebc-42b8-8eba-97e0e8c2ad31%2FUntitled.png%3Ftable%3Dblock%26id%3D5a38f2ac-293a-4c80-98ca-37764cf9be26%26spaceId%3De1c5ba0e-562a-49b0-8505-ce5e38fc061b%26expirationTimestamp%3D1725660000000%26signature%3DaUESRoGEyob_Ilog4bjgMSkqpp46s-9zp84yOgsAjoA?table=block&id=5a38f2ac-293a-4c80-98ca-37764cf9be26&cache=v2)
![notion image](https://www.notion.so/image/https%3A%2F%2Ffile.notion.so%2Ff%2Ff%2Fe1c5ba0e-562a-49b0-8505-ce5e38fc061b%2Fea19552f-234e-4f4a-9ac6-328fce678703%2FUntitled.png%3Ftable%3Dblock%26id%3D2579a791-236e-406c-9e70-d5efa7d30c78%26spaceId%3De1c5ba0e-562a-49b0-8505-ce5e38fc061b%26expirationTimestamp%3D1725660000000%26signature%3DZ9mPb-wvE2zxakY4RwAmGseVo7zVnvSmwNzQswDBIrA?table=block&id=2579a791-236e-406c-9e70-d5efa7d30c78&cache=v2)
![notion image](https://www.notion.so/image/https%3A%2F%2Ffile.notion.so%2Ff%2Ff%2Fe1c5ba0e-562a-49b0-8505-ce5e38fc061b%2Fa6155bc2-78b0-48b2-9eb1-69cbc834554b%2FUntitled.png%3Ftable%3Dblock%26id%3De55294b8-4b2a-4446-8c48-aae749260766%26spaceId%3De1c5ba0e-562a-49b0-8505-ce5e38fc061b%26expirationTimestamp%3D1725660000000%26signature%3DZjKBNYdPO2V2WhyJUb1Gp4GvDyT3LKwcZheoiUoGS4k?table=block&id=e55294b8-4b2a-4446-8c48-aae749260766&cache=v2)
![Suppose the posterior probs of these are:](https://www.notion.so/image/https%3A%2F%2Ffile.notion.so%2Ff%2Ff%2Fe1c5ba0e-562a-49b0-8505-ce5e38fc061b%2F2952df13-756a-4e48-aaef-7e9860519fc7%2FUntitled.png%3Ftable%3Dblock%26id%3D488910cb-20f1-4b9d-8da9-bc9919ebdef1%26spaceId%3De1c5ba0e-562a-49b0-8505-ce5e38fc061b%26expirationTimestamp%3D1725660000000%26signature%3DTXMM-SZZxUH0ORclmeCutiIflpauEPiSZFAEbL1Qk-s?table=block&id=488910cb-20f1-4b9d-8da9-bc9919ebdef1&cache=v2)
![notion image](https://www.notion.so/image/https%3A%2F%2Ffile.notion.so%2Ff%2Ff%2Fe1c5ba0e-562a-49b0-8505-ce5e38fc061b%2F9a323bb5-122a-4a87-bc1f-410207ef24df%2FUntitled.png%3Ftable%3Dblock%26id%3D8e2fa68f-ba3b-40ce-a2e6-81072c485ac1%26spaceId%3De1c5ba0e-562a-49b0-8505-ce5e38fc061b%26expirationTimestamp%3D1725660000000%26signature%3DQ9FNGXDufAWwrEA1Crzg40oFMq9-4_lMOcFmwq1iE3w?table=block&id=8e2fa68f-ba3b-40ce-a2e6-81072c485ac1&cache=v2)
![notion image](https://www.notion.so/image/https%3A%2F%2Ffile.notion.so%2Ff%2Ff%2Fe1c5ba0e-562a-49b0-8505-ce5e38fc061b%2F13d4f1f5-639b-4444-af62-e1979636cc67%2FUntitled.png%3Ftable%3Dblock%26id%3D29fd9ae4-ee85-423d-846d-1c7b238188f1%26spaceId%3De1c5ba0e-562a-49b0-8505-ce5e38fc061b%26expirationTimestamp%3D1725660000000%26signature%3D51H9_Tsm9PVc5zKSKj0TBLO8C4N8yg8gEKM35E9k2DQ?table=block&id=29fd9ae4-ee85-423d-846d-1c7b238188f1&cache=v2)
![揾EVSI](https://www.notion.so/image/https%3A%2F%2Ffile.notion.so%2Ff%2Ff%2Fe1c5ba0e-562a-49b0-8505-ce5e38fc061b%2F693d6914-2fc9-41d0-a701-5da75cf748c3%2FUntitled.png%3Ftable%3Dblock%26id%3D82bf20f4-a410-45f5-bf3c-e2bc64246b40%26spaceId%3De1c5ba0e-562a-49b0-8505-ce5e38fc061b%26expirationTimestamp%3D1725660000000%26signature%3D2_-SCC_XaZnyXdKueHn57Q0iE-66wDko93UCbbuxIG8?table=block&id=82bf20f4-a410-45f5-bf3c-e2bc64246b40&cache=v2)
- Author:Jason Siu
- URL:https://jason-siu.com/article%2F0b5ba5cc-a770-4c9a-b102-c88ba46cdead
- Copyright:All articles in this blog, except for special statements, adopt BY-NC-SA agreement. Please indicate the source!
Relate Posts
Values alignment - Ray Dalio & Naval Ravikant
The AAA Framework - Ali Abdaal
Bouncing Back with Gain Recovery Calculator: The Art of Recouping Financial Losses in Leveraged Investments
Zero to One Extract: Questions that every business must answer
Life - Principles
I'm a master of analysis, coding is just a bonus!